Chrono Score
A calibration-based forecaster reputation score. Domain-partitioned, time-decayed, Wang-corrected. Portable across platforms. Phase 0 — buildable now, zero capital.
Chronomancy
The trust layer for prediction markets. Reputation scoring, resolution insurance, and structured early exit — so forecasting can become a real profession.
Why now
Section titled “Why now”Prediction markets are becoming real-time belief infrastructure. The Federal Reserve benchmarks Kalshi against Bloomberg consensus. ICE committed up to $2B to Polymarket at an $8B valuation. Goldman Sachs opened an event desk. Notional volume has grown 130× in 18 months, to $13B per month.
But the ecosystem has a structural trust gap.
- Nobody knows who’s credible. The top 1% of traders capture 84% of gains. Nobody can identify them across platforms.
- Resolution fails catastrophically. Oracle attacks cost $403M in 2022 alone. The Oracle Trilemma formally proves no protocol can be simultaneously decentralized, truthful, and scalable.
- 72% of participants lose money and leave. The optimal strategy (full Kelly) produces a 75% chance of a 25% drawdown.
Zero of 264+ tracked prediction market projects build insurance, derivatives, or protocol-level reputation. We do.
Three products
Section titled “Three products”Fast-Forward
A vault that buys prediction market positions from early exiters at reputation-adjusted prices and holds them to maturity. Structured early exit, backed by a literature-quantified pricing wedge.
Rewind
Insurance against resolution failure. Oracle attacks, contract ambiguity, observable manipulation — priced from the UMA dispute history and Semantic Risk Score methodology.
No token in the base case
Revenue comes from fees and spreads. A token is specified as an optional expansion module only, not as a required load-bearing mechanism.
Evidence base
Section titled “Evidence base”52 academic papers synthesized into 10 hypotheses. Skill is real and persistent (89.4% out-of-sample accuracy for top 5%). Selection outperforms aggregation by 21% (Atanasov 2024). Resolution risk is inherent and quantifiable (Ma 2026, Sanjabi 2026, Cong 2025). Institutional demand is validated (Fed FEDS 2026-010, ICE $2B, $35M dedicated fund).
What we are not
Section titled “What we are not”- Not a prediction market. We wrap Kalshi, Polymarket, and Azuro — we do not operate an exchange.
- Not a token project. The base model has no token. Revenue is fees and spreads.
- Not a game. The “time” theme survives in product names (Chrono, Fast-Forward, Rewind) and brand imagery only. The organizing principle is epistemic infrastructure.