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CHRONOMANCY

Wizard Duels

FUTURE

Wizard Duels are 1v1 forecasting challenges. Forecaster A challenges Forecaster B on a specific market. Both lock positions. Market resolves. Elo updates. The duel result — including both forecasters’ reasoning — is published as shareable content.

The MVP Spec

Section titled “The MVP Spec”
sequenceDiagram
    participant A as Forecaster A
    participant Protocol
    participant B as Forecaster B
    participant Market


    A->>Protocol: Issue duel invitation (specific market + probability)
    Protocol->>B: Notify challenger (24h window to accept)
    B->>Protocol: Accept + submit sealed probability
    Protocol->>Market: Lock both positions
    Market->>Protocol: Resolves
    Protocol->>Protocol: Reveal both predictions, compute winner
    Protocol->>A: Elo update
    Protocol->>B: Elo update
    Protocol->>Public: Publish duel result + reasoning

How a Duel Works

Section titled “How a Duel Works”
  1. Challenge: Forecaster A selects an open market and issues a duel invitation, optionally specifying a wager size.
  2. Matching: The protocol finds Forecaster B (opponent with similar Elo) or creates a new market for the duel if needed.
  3. Sealed submission: Both forecasters submit their probability predictions. Predictions are locked — neither can see the other’s until resolution.
  4. Resolution: The market resolves normally on the underlying platform (Polymarket, Azuro, etc.).
  5. Reveal + Elo update: Both predictions are revealed simultaneously. The more accurate forecaster wins the duel; Elo updates using standard formulas weighted by the probability difference.
  6. Publication: Duel result is published with both forecasters’ optional reasoning. This is a shareable artifact — the first native social content layer on prediction markets.

Why Sealed Predictions Matter

Section titled “Why Sealed Predictions Matter”

If predictions weren’t sealed, challengers could watch their opponent’s live position and counter-trade — making the duel a market manipulation mechanic rather than a skill test. Sealed predictions ensure both sides commit to honest beliefs before resolution.

The reveal after resolution also creates a narrative arc: “I said 72%, they said 45% — here’s why I was right.” These narratives are far more engaging content than raw market data.

Wager Mechanics

Section titled “Wager Mechanics”

Duels can be pure Elo (no wager) or include a $TM or USDC stake:

  • Pure Elo duel: Winner gets Elo points, loser loses them. No financial stake.
  • Staked duel: Winner takes loser’s stake. Elo still updates.
  • Adversarial collaboration duel: No stake; community rates reasoning quality; reasoning quality score influences Elo update.

Content Engine

Section titled “Content Engine”

Each duel generates:

  • A permanent on-chain record with both sealed predictions and the outcome
  • An optional reasoning artifact (plain text, published at reveal time)
  • A shareable result card: “I beat [opponent] on [market] with a 78% vs 51% prediction”

This creates the first native social content layer for prediction markets. Polymarket has leaderboards; no platform has structured 1v1 challenges with publishable outcomes.

Scaling to Tournaments

Section titled “Scaling to Tournaments”

Wizard Duels are designed to be composable into tournament brackets:

  • Seasonal World Cup: bracket of 64 forecasters, single-elimination
  • Domain championships: politics Elo vs. sports Elo vs. crypto Elo
  • Community-created leagues with their own Elo sub-ladders

These are post-MVP. The 1v1 duel is the minimal surface area — small enough to ship, rich enough to create engagement.

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