Precognition
New users have zero prediction history. Chrono Score requires 30+ predictions to unlock Basic tier. Without a bridge, every new user faces a multi-month wait before they can access any module.
Precognition is that bridge — a paper trading mode on live prediction markets that lets new forecasters build toward CS qualification without real money at stake.
The Cold-Start Problem
Section titled “The Cold-Start Problem”The Chrono Score system is only as valuable as the forecasters who participate. But bootstrapping a forecaster base has a structural chicken-and-egg problem:
- High-CS users get better terms → but only experienced forecasters have high CS
- New users get no benefit → so experienced forecasters have no reason to join early
Precognition breaks this cycle by giving new users a progress bar toward their first real benefit, even before they’ve made a single real-money prediction.
How Paper Predictions Work
Section titled “How Paper Predictions Work”Users in Precognition mode make probability predictions on live Polymarket markets — but no real money changes hands.
Key rule: Paper predictions count toward the 30-prediction qualification threshold (earning CS access), but they do NOT contribute to CS score. Only real-money stakes count for vault pricing.
This prevents gaming: a user cannot grind easy paper trades to artificially inflate their CS. They can only use Precognition to clear the gate — then must earn their CS the real way.
An optional sim-accuracy prior applies a small adjustment (±10% max) to a user’s CS starting point based on their paper prediction quality. This gives better-performing Precognition users a slight head start without compromising the system’s integrity.
Structured Onboarding Funnel
Section titled “Structured Onboarding Funnel”| Stage | Milestone | Mechanic |
|---|---|---|
| Discovery | Connect wallet | Auto-detect existing Polymarket trades |
| First predictions | 5 paper predictions | Earn “Apprentice” badge |
| Qualification grind | 30 predictions across ≥3 categories | CS access unlocked |
| Transition | First real-money prediction | Precognition mode stays available |
| Graduation | 30 real predictions | Basic FF tier unlocked |
The category diversity requirement (≥3 market categories) prevents easy-market farming during onboarding. A user who only predicts 85%+ basketball games never qualifies — they must engage across domains.
$TM Burn for Spam Prevention
Section titled “$TM Burn for Spam Prevention”Each paper prediction costs 1–5 $TM to submit. This is a trivial cost for genuine users but makes mass wallet creation + paper grinding uneconomical for attackers.
The $TM burn also creates a token sink from day one — Precognition users are the first cohort to consume supply.
Cross-Platform Import Bypass
Section titled “Cross-Platform Import Bypass”Users with verified external track records from Metaculus, Good Judgment Project, or other platforms skip Precognition entirely. Their import credit is applied directly to CS — they land in Basic or Standard tier on day one.
This rewards experienced forecasters for joining early and ensures the Precognition funnel is only required for genuinely new-to-forecasting users.
CS Maturity Ramp
Section titled “CS Maturity Ramp”As more users progress through Precognition and accumulate on-platform history, the proportion of Premium-tier forecasters in the vault grows:
| Period | Premium CS % | Vault Alpha |
|---|---|---|
| M1–6 | ~5% | 3–4% |
| M7–12 | ~15% | 5–6% |
| M13–24 | ~30% | 6–8% |
| M25+ | ~45% | 7–9% |
Faster Precognition throughput directly accelerates vault alpha — which is why Precognition is classified as Phase 0 infrastructure, not a nice-to-have feature.
Financial Model Inputs
Section titled “Financial Model Inputs”| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Paper predictions to qualify | 30 |
| Typical qualification time | 2–4 weeks |
| Sim-to-real conversion rate | 30–50% |
| Time to Basic FF (from signup) | 3–5 months |
| Monthly Precognition users (target) | 500–2,000 |
| Monthly Basic FF qualifiers | 50–200 |
Related:
- Chrono Score — what Precognition is qualifying users for
- User Journey — full onboarding flow in context