Cross-Product Economics
The most important insight in Chronomancy’s economics: different user segments are profitable on different modules. The protocol makes money on ALL users, just through different products.
The CS Band LTV Table
Section titled “The CS Band LTV Table”Annual profit per user, by Chrono Score band, across Rewind (insurance) and Fast-Forward (early exit):
| Band | CS Tier | Rewind P&L | FF P&L | Blended LTV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Premium (top 10%) | −$3/yr | +$38/yr | +$35/yr |
| B | Standard (top 25%) | −$10/yr | +$28/yr | +$18/yr |
| C | Basic (top 50%) | −$18/yr | +$15/yr | −$3/yr |
| D | Unscored | +$60/yr | +$3/yr | +$63/yr |
Reading the Table
Section titled “Reading the Table”Band A: High-CS users are insurance loss-leaders — but FF goldmines
Section titled “Band A: High-CS users are insurance loss-leaders — but FF goldmines”Premium forecasters (top 10%) claim Rewind less often than lower bands (18–22% claims frequency vs. 40–50% for unscored), and they get the biggest premium discounts. This makes Rewind slightly unprofitable on Band A.
But Band A users are the vault’s most valuable Fast-Forward customers: they exit above market price correctly — the vault earns alpha on their positions because those positions are disproportionately likely to resolve YES. Band A generates $38/yr in FF profit against $3/yr Rewind loss → $35 net.
Band D: Unscored users are insurance profit centers
Section titled “Band D: Unscored users are insurance profit centers”New or low-accuracy users claim Rewind frequently (40–50%) and pay a 10–20% surcharge. Rewind earns $60/yr on them.
They access FF only at market price (0% premium) and generate minimal FF yield. But the $60 Rewind profit alone makes them highly valuable. $63 net.
Band C: The problem segment
Section titled “Band C: The problem segment”Basic-tier users claim Rewind at moderate rates (30–35%) with no discount — generating $18/yr in Rewind losses. Their FF access is limited (Standard tier: 0–2% above market), generating only $15/yr in vault yield.
Band C users are marginally unprofitable (−$3/yr) but are transitioning — as they accumulate predictions and move to Band B or A, their LTV flips positive. Band C is better understood as a pipeline cost than a permanent loss.
Why This Structure Works
Section titled “Why This Structure Works”Traditional prediction markets have one product: you win or you lose. Chronomancy has two products calibrated to opposite user types:
| User Type | Main Revenue Source | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Skilled forecasters (Band A) | Fast-Forward vault yield | Vault pays premium for accurate positions |
| New/losing forecasters (Band D) | Rewind insurance premiums | High claims frequency, surcharge pricing |
| Everyone in between | Mix | Progression toward Band A over time |
No user segment is a drain on the protocol. Band A are expensive to insure but lucrative for the vault. Band D are cheap for the vault but lucrative for insurance. The cross-product structure converts the full distribution of forecaster quality into protocol revenue.
Protocol-Level Profitability
Section titled “Protocol-Level Profitability”At scale (1,000 active users, evenly distributed across bands):
| Band | Users | LTV/User | Segment Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| A (top 10%) | 100 | +$35 | +$3,500 |
| B (next 15%) | 150 | +$18 | +$2,700 |
| C (next 25%) | 250 | −$3 | −$750 |
| D (unscored, 50%) | 500 | +$63 | +$31,500 |
| Total | 1,000 | +$37/avg | +$36,950/yr |
This is before token flywheel effects (buyback/burn, veTM lock multipliers, seasonal vault bonuses). The cross-product economics are profitable on their own — the token layer is additive upside.
Related:
- Rewind — insurance mechanics and CS band pricing
- Fast-Forward — vault mechanics and tiered pricing
- Retention Flywheel — how the economics drive re-engagement