Fast-Forward

PHASE 1

FAST-FORWARD is reputation-backed early exit. The vault buys your prediction market position above current market price based on your Chrono Score. You get USDC now; the vault holds your position to resolution and collects the full payout.

This is not a cash-out haircut. High-CS forecasters exit above market price — the premium they receive is funded by the vault’s confidence in their accuracy.

In theory, yes. In practice, 63% of active Polymarket markets carry zero 24-hour volume. Most prediction market positions are illiquid — you can’t sell what nobody’s buying. FF solves the liquidity gap for long-tail markets where order books are thin or nonexistent. For liquid markets, FF still provides value: the vault pays above market price for high-CS users, which no order book will do.

“Won’t smart traders dump toxic bets on the vault?” The vault’s defense is the selection effect: users who FF are disproportionately those with strong conviction on their best positions. Empirically, FF users show +2-5pp additional alpha above CS alone. The vault also uses quarter-Kelly sizing with strict caps (5% single event, 15% correlated) and the rolling meta-score auto-tightens pricing if alpha declines. If alpha goes to zero, the vault degrades to a market-maker — see Alpha=0 Floor.

graph LR
    User -->|transfers CTF position| FFVault
    FFVault -->|pays above-market USDC| User
    User -.->|reputation outcome recorded| ChronoScore
    FFVault -->|holds to resolution| Resolution
    Resolution -->|full payout| FFVault
    FFVault -->|distributes yield| LPStakers

⏩FAST-FORWARDEarly exit

Market price (¢)

62¢

Shares held

500

Your Chrono Score band

Market exit

$310

@ 62¢

Your exit

$325

@ 65¢

Gain

+$15

reputation premium

How It Works

Select a position — the Hub shows your open Polymarket positions
See your exit range — the vault quotes a range (e.g., 68–73c on a 65c market price) based on your CS tier
Choose your price — higher exit price = more reputation at stake
Transfer + receive USDC — the position ERC-1155 shares transfer to the vault; you receive USDC immediately
Chrono Score records the outcome — regardless of whether you exited early, the market’s resolution is attributed to your accuracy record

The position splits at transfer: economic risk goes to the vault; reputation risk stays with you.

Why Vaults Pay Above Market

The vault is not a charity — it earns the spread between what it pays users and the full resolution payout. It can afford to pay above market price because:

High-CS forecasters are systematically more accurate than market pricing implies. If a high-CS user holds a 60c position, the market says 60% probability. The vault’s CS model says 70%. The vault buys at 68c, the position resolves YES at $1.00 — vault earns 32c on a 68c purchase.

This is alpha harvesting, not market-making.

Selection effect: Users who choose to use Fast-Forward are disproportionately those with strong conviction — they’re specifically the positions they’re most confident will win. Empirically, FF users show +2–5pp additional alpha above CS alone.

Tiered Pricing

Tier	Predictions Required	Exit Range vs. Market
Unscored	0–29	No access
Basic	30–49	At market (0%)
Standard	50–99	0–2% above market
Premium	100+	2–8% above market
Expert (domain)	100+ in category	5–10% above market

Vault Economics

Alpha Target

Scenario	CS Alpha	Selection Effect	Net Spread	Vault APY
Bear	3–4%	+2%	1%	8–12%
Base	7–8%	+3%	4%	20–30%
Bull	12–15%	+5%	8%	35–45%

The vault targets 20–40% annualized gross returns in the base case.

Position Sizing

The vault uses quarter-Kelly sizing with caps:

max_position = min(0.25 × Kelly_fraction × VaultNAV, PositionSizeCap)

This limits single-event exposure even when many users exit into the same market. A diversified vault buying positions across 3-month prediction horizons can target 20–40% annualized gross returns.

The Alpha = 0 Floor

What happens if CS alpha goes to zero — the vault’s edge disappears?

The vault degrades to a standard market-maker, not a failure. It buys positions at or near market price, earns near-zero spread, and LPs receive near-zero yield. There is no catastrophic loss scenario from alpha underperformance — the vault only loses money if it systematically overestimates CS accuracy (buys positions above their true probability).

The rolling meta-score auto-adjustment system tightens FF premium ranges when alpha metrics decline, creating a self-correcting feedback loop.

Capital Requirements

Item	Cost
Vault seed capital	$250K recommended
Vault audit (before $100K TVL)	$30–50K
Solidity dev (6-month contract)	$60–100K
Breakeven	Month 6–9
95% survival probability	Base case

The $250K seed capital target is sized for a vault that can absorb a correlated loss event (e.g., a cluster of high-CS forecasters all wrong on the same election) and still maintain LP confidence.

Offramp Integration (v0.2+)

For users who want to convert USDC exit proceeds to fiat, Chronomancy integrates with MoonPay and Transak as offramp providers. This is a Phase 2 feature — Phase 1 assumes users are comfortable holding USDC.

Token Integration Roadmap

Version	$TM Integration
v0.1	USDC vault. $TM staking unlocks Standard/Premium tier access.
v0.2	$TM stakers receive vault yield priority
v0.3	$TM burn for better exit range (consume token for temporary boost)

Related:

Chrono Score — how your exit price is determined
Cross-Product Economics — FF + Rewind combined LTV by CS band
Capital Structure — junior/senior tranching applied to FF
Smart Contracts — ERC-4626 vault implementation