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FORK creates conditional markets. Burn $TIMEMACHINE to split any prediction market into two branches: the outcome conditional on a secondary event, and the outcome without it.

Inspired by: Braid World 4 (parallel timelines). Financial primitive: conditional / combinatorial markets (Gnosis CTF-style).

Mechanics

Section titled “Mechanics”
ParameterValue
Cost$TM burn (amount set by market size)
Branches created2 conditional sub-markets
Liquidity seedingFork creator + protocol matching
Max forks per market2
Branch resolutionTied to parent + secondary event resolution

Example:

  • Parent: “Will ETH hit $10K by December 2026?” (65% probability)
  • Fork A: “Will ETH hit $10K IF the Fed cuts rates in Q3?” (75% conditional)
  • Fork B: “Will ETH hit $10K IF the Fed holds?” (45% conditional)

The implied probability check: P(A) × P(Fed cuts) + P(B) × P(Fed holds) ≈ P(parent). FORK creates price discovery on the conditional structure that doesn’t exist in any current market.

Play 2 Reframe: Cross-Platform Conditional Engine

Section titled “Play 2 Reframe: Cross-Platform Conditional Engine”

External platforms (Polymarket, Azuro, Kalshi) each have their own markets. FORK in Play 2 becomes a cross-platform conditional engine:

  • Polymarket has: “Will X happen?”
  • Azuro has: “Will Y happen?”
  • FORK creates: “Will X happen given Y?” as a synthetic market combining positions from both platforms
  • Liquidity is seeded by the creator + protocol matching engine
  • $TM burn creates the cross-platform conditional; resolution uses both platforms’ outcomes

No platform offers this natively. It requires cross-platform position management — the Hub’s native capability.

Why High Complexity

Section titled “Why High Complexity”

FORK is classified as a Tier 3 / Moat Builder feature (not MVP). The complexity is real:

  • Cross-platform conditional resolution requires reliable oracle feeds from multiple platforms simultaneously
  • Liquidity fragmentation (two thin sub-markets instead of one deeper market) must be managed
  • $TM burn requirement must be sized to prevent spam forks that fragment important markets

Build FORK after $10M+ TVL and a dedicated research team — it requires substantial infrastructure to work well.

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