Loop
LOOP is the seasonal epoch system. Every quarter, prediction markets run a season: capital resets for fresh starts, but Chrono Score carries forward permanently. veTM locks amplify seasonal rewards for long-term committed participants.
Inspired by: Outer Wilds / Majora’s Mask (repeat cycles with accumulated knowledge). Financial primitive: epoch system + reputation carry-over (veCRV-style lock multipliers).
How Seasons Work
Section titled “How Seasons Work”Each LOOP season runs for approximately 90 days. At season end:
| What Resets | What Persists |
|---|---|
| Capital positions (all resolve or close) | Chrono Score (forever) |
| Seasonal Elo ranking | Domain subscores |
| Glicko-2 volatility (high RD → uncertain again) | Prediction history |
| Leaderboard position | veTM lock multipliers (on remaining locked $TM) |
The capital reset gives users a fresh start every quarter — important for retail users who took heavy losses in a bad season. The persistent CS ensures that long-run skill compounds meaningfully.
Seasonal Glicko-2 Reset
Section titled “Seasonal Glicko-2 Reset”At the start of each new season, all users’ Glicko-2 Rating Deviation (RD) is partially reset — their CS Level stays the same, but the confidence interval widens. This means:
- A user who performed poorly last season has room to prove they’ve improved
- A user who was inactive has their uncertainty reflected accurately
- The vault re-evaluates FF pricing more conservatively at season start and recalibrates within the first 2–4 weeks of new predictions
veTM Lock Multipliers
Section titled “veTM Lock Multipliers”Lock $TIMEMACHINE for a season to earn a yield multiplier on vault earnings:
| Lock Duration | Multiplier | Example Yield at 20% Base |
|---|---|---|
| No lock | 1.0× | 20% |
| 30-day lock | 2.0× | 40% |
| 90-day lock | 4.0× | 80% |
Locks are non-transferable during the lock period. Early unlock forfeits the multiplier accrued.
This is a direct port of veCRV mechanics — long-term commitment creates protocol alignment and token velocity reduction.
Multi-Season Averaging
Section titled “Multi-Season Averaging”CS computation uses multi-season weighted averaging rather than only the current season. This prevents a single lucky season from dramatically inflating CS (and a single bad season from destroying it).
The weighting scheme:
CS = 0.5 × current_season + 0.3 × last_season + 0.2 × older_seasonsLOOP × Competitive Layer
Section titled “LOOP × Competitive Layer”Each season feeds into the Elo competitive system:
- Seasonal leaderboard = Elo rankings at season end
- Top-10 forecasters receive bonus vault yield shares
- Seasonal rankings are shareable as soulbound achievement tokens
Related:
- Chrono Score — the reputation that persists across loops
- Elo System — competitive rankings that reset seasonally