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CHRONOMANCY

Build Roadmap

The build order is driven by capital requirements, technical dependencies, and product risk. Each phase proves the foundations needed for the next.

Phase 0 — Chrono Score + Precognition

Section titled “Phase 0 — Chrono Score + Precognition”
PHASE 0 — BUILD NOW

What ships: Soulbound forecasting reputation + paper trading onboarding

  • Cross-platform Chrono Score: index Polymarket CTF positions via subgraph, calculate Brier-style accuracy score per wallet, attest on-chain via Ethereum Attestation Service (EAS) on Polygon
  • Precognition: paper trading mode on live Polymarket markets — paper predictions count toward CS qualification
  • Frontend: connect wallet → see your Chrono Score + global ranking
  • $TM utility: burn $TM to boost seasonal score multiplier; lock for season bonus

Why first: Zero capital requirements. No pools, no insurance, no user funds at risk. Genuinely novel — no on-chain prediction reputation exists anywhere in production. Creates the data asset that makes every subsequent product better.

Hire needed: None. Existing team can deliver (frontend + subgraph + EAS attestations = lightweight Solidity).

Phase 1 — Fast-Forward Vault

Section titled “Phase 1 — Fast-Forward Vault”
PHASE 1 — BLOCKED

Blockers: Senior Solidity dev hire · $TM on Polygon · Legal opinion

What ships: ERC-4626 vault on Polygon that buys Polymarket positions at a discount from early exiters

  • User selects position to exit → gets USDC at current odds minus 5-10% haircut
  • Vault holds position to maturity, collects full payout
  • $TM stakers deposit into vault, earn yield from the spread
  • ANCHOR power bundled: conviction locks for better FF rates

Why second: Clearest unit economics. Bet365 cash-out model (5-15% haircut) is proven. $500M+ idle on Polymarket represents latent demand. PolyLend (open-sourced by Polymarket) proves the CTF read pattern works. Generates real yield for $TM stakers — first yield-bearing utility for the token.

Capital needed: $50K–200K to seed the vault.

Audit required: $30–50K before TVL exceeds $100K.

graph LR
    A[Hire Solidity Dev] --> B[Phase 1: FF Vault]
    C[$TM on Polygon] --> B
    D[Legal Opinion] --> E[Phase 2: Rewind]
    B --> E

Phase 2 — Rewind Insurance

Section titled “Phase 2 — Rewind Insurance”
PHASE 2 — BLOCKED

Blockers: Phase 1 complete · $420K–985K raise · Quant validation

What ships: Full position insurance protocol on Polygon

  • Single USDC pool, 10-20 whitelisted Polymarket markets to start
  • Simplified 3-layer pricing (actuarial base + time decay + utilization)
  • $TM holders get premium discounts (v0.2 token integration)
  • CS Band pricing: high-CS users pay 20-30% less; unscored users pay 10-20% surcharge

Why third: Requires Phase 1 lessons (pool management, capital adequacy, CTF integration). Requires Chrono Score data for risk-adjusted pricing. The “undo your losses” narrative is the strongest product — save it for proven execution.

Capital needed: $200K–500K for the insurance pool (senior tranche; $CHRONO stakers provide junior/first-loss).

Audit required: $50–80K (insurance contracts = higher risk surface).

Phase 3+ — Protocol Expansion

Section titled “Phase 3+ — Protocol Expansion”
FUTURE

After Phase 1-2, expansion is data-driven:

PriorityProductTrigger
HighYIELD CLOCKVault TVL > $1M, passive yield demand
HighCHRONICLE (calendar spreads)Enough related markets across time horizons
MediumECHO (retroactive rewards)Chrono Score has 6+ months of data
MediumDRIFT (theta trading)Dalen model backtested on real data
LowFORK (conditionals)$10M+ TVL + research team
LowTEMPO (batch auctions)Large enough retail user base
Long-termCONVERGENCE (cross-margining)Multi-platform integration proven

Budget Summary

Section titled “Budget Summary”
ItemCostPhase
Senior Solidity dev (6-month contract)$60–100KBefore Phase 1
Quant consultant (part-time, 3 months)$15–25KPhase 2
Vault audit$30–50KPhase 1
Insurance audit$50–80KPhase 2
Legal opinion (Bermuda/Cayman)$15–30KBefore Phase 2
Vault seed capital$50–200KPhase 1
Insurance pool capital$200–500KPhase 2
Infrastructure (RPCs, subgraph, hosting)~$500/monthOngoing
Total through Phase 2$420K–985K~8 months

The range is wide because capital requirements depend on vault ambition. Minimum viable: $420K (lean hire, small vault, minimal insurance pool). Comfortable build: ~$700K.

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