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CHRONOMANCY

User Journey

The Chronomancy user flow is designed around a single premise: you keep trading on Polymarket or Azuro as usual. The Hub sits on top, adds reputation, and lets you activate modules on your existing positions.

Step 1 — Connect

Section titled “Step 1 — Connect”

Connect your wallet (MetaMask, Rabby, or any WalletConnect-compatible wallet) to the Chronomancy Hub. The Hub auto-detects your network and prompts to switch to Polygon, where all Chronomancy contracts live.

Step 2 — Import Your Track Record

Section titled “Step 2 — Import Your Track Record”

Three paths, depending on your history:

PathWhoHow
Cross-platform importHas Metaculus / GJP / Superforecaster historyUpload verified prediction history via TLSNotary proof; skip Precognition
Polymarket wallet historyHas Polymarket tradesHub indexes your CTF positions automatically via subgraph; earns partial credit toward Chrono Score
Fresh startNew forecasterEnter Precognition — paper trading mode with live Polymarket markets

Step 3 — Build Your Chrono Score

Section titled “Step 3 — Build Your Chrono Score”

Chrono Score is your soulbound forecasting reputation. It updates after every resolved market you participated in (or made paper predictions on during Precognition).

The score has two signals:

  • Level — your long-run accuracy (capped log scoring internally; Brier score publicly displayed)
  • Confidence — how well-calibrated your predictions are, tracked via Glicko-2 rating

A higher Chrono Score unlocks better terms on every module:

  • Cheaper Rewind insurance premiums
  • Better Fast-Forward exit prices
  • Priority allocation in constrained capacity situations

→ Full Chrono Score mechanics

Step 4 — Trade as Usual

Section titled “Step 4 — Trade as Usual”

Trade on Polymarket, Azuro, or Kalshi normally. The Hub reads your positions in the background and updates your Chrono Score as markets resolve.

No extra steps. No wrapping tokens. No migration.

Step 5 — Activate Modules

Section titled “Step 5 — Activate Modules”

With open positions in your portfolio, the Hub shows module options:

REWIND (insurance):

  • Select a position → see your coverage quote (70% of entry, discounted by your CS tier)
  • Pay premium in USDC → receive a Rewind policy NFT
  • If the market resolves against you → claim within 24h → receive 70% payout

FAST-FORWARD (early exit):

  • Select a winning position → see exit price range based on your Chrono Score
  • Accept offer → position transfers to FF vault → receive USDC immediately
  • Your Chrono Score outcome is still recorded from the position (for reputation purposes)

Step 6 — Seasonal Progression via Loop

Section titled “Step 6 — Seasonal Progression via Loop”

LOOP runs quarterly epochs:

  • Capital resets at season end (no permanent lock-in)
  • Chrono Score persists — your reputation carries across seasons
  • Seasonal leaderboard ranks forecasters by combined Elo + CS

At season end, top forecasters receive yield bonuses from the vault. This is the compounding benefit of long-run accuracy.

Step 7 — Compete via Wizard Duels

Section titled “Step 7 — Compete via Wizard Duels”

Challenge other forecasters to a 1v1 Wizard Duel:

  • Select a live market → lock positions → both sides predict
  • Resolution updates both Elo ratings
  • Duel results are shareable — the first native social layer on top of a prediction market

The Progression Arc

Section titled “The Progression Arc”

The intended user arc over 12 months:

Casual loser → Insured loser → Reinsured survivor → Scoring forecaster → Wizard competitor

At each stage, Chronomancy offers a reason to stay. The traditional prediction market offers none of these.

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