Three products
Three products, sequenced by capital intensity. Each addresses one of the three structural failures. All three wrap existing venues (Kalshi, Polymarket, Azuro) rather than competing with them.
| Product | Addresses | Phase | Capital | Build time | Revenue source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrono Score | No reputation layer | 0 | $0 | 4–8 weeks | API tiers + cross-product risk pricing |
| Fast-Forward | Retention crisis + liquidity gap | 1 | $50–200K seed + $30–50K audit + $60–100K Solidity | 10–14 weeks | 5–10% spread on vault turnover |
| Rewind | Resolution risk | 2 | $200–500K pool + $50–80K audit | 14–20 weeks | Insurance premiums |
Build principle: Chrono Score must ship before either capital-intensive product. It is both the credibility artifact (no-token, no-raise, testable) and the pricing signal the other two products consume.
Two-score architecture
Section titled “Two-score architecture”The literature says “skill” is not a single axis. Yang 2026 shows skilled forecasters capture $228M; Vedova 2026 shows bots at 50% accuracy profit through execution while 51%-accurate retail lose. Accuracy and execution are both real, orthogonal, and separately valuable.
So Chronomancy publishes two scores.
- Chrono Score (public) — forecasting accuracy, Wang-corrected, domain-partitioned, time-weighted. Consumed by Rewind (counterparty discount) and Fast-Forward (seller quality). Displayed publicly.
- Execution Score (internal) — realized PnL net of timing/spread/fee drag. Consumed by Fast-Forward (position sizing) and internal risk controls. Not publicly displayed in v0.
The two-score split is what makes the products cohere. A single averaged score would lose signal in both directions; two scores let Rewind price on accuracy and Fast-Forward size on execution, which is what each product actually needs.
What we do not build
Section titled “What we do not build”- An exchange. We wrap existing venues.
- A token. Revenue is fees and spreads in the base case.
- A UI for forecasting itself. Users forecast on Kalshi / Polymarket / Azuro. We read, score, and price.
- A chat or social layer. Reputation lives in the scoreboard, not in conversation threads.