Chrono Score
Phase 0. Buildable now. Zero capital required.
Chrono Score is a forecaster reputation score computed from resolved prediction market positions across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Azuro. It is domain-partitioned, time-decayed, Wang-corrected, and published both as a soulbound attestation (EAS on Optimism) and as a queryable JSON API.
Why it works
Section titled “Why it works”The literature is unambiguous: forecasting skill is real, persistent, concentrated, and measurable.
- Persistence — Reichenbach 2025 (N=124.5M trades): month-to-month persistence Welch t=5.14, p<0.001. Previous winners have 59% probability of positive next-month PnL vs 40% for previous losers.
- Out-of-sample — Yang 2026: top-5% wallets sustain 89.4% accuracy in hold-out vs 50.4% for experience-matched non-skilled.
- Cross-platform — Atanasov 2024: test–retest reliability r=0.38 across IARPA seasons.
- Selection dominates — Atanasov: top 2% produce 21% accuracy improvement over sub-elite crowds. 3× larger than the prediction-market-vs-poll mechanism effect.
Architecture
Section titled “Architecture”Seven design decisions, each literature-grounded.
- Edge per trade. edge_i = d_i × (O_m − P_i), demeaned per market (Deleep 2026). This captures directional correctness weighted by distance from market-implied probability.
- Wang correction. Observed prices on real-money platforms embed a systematic pricing wedge (λ ≈ 0.18, Yang 2026). Raw accuracy against raw prices is biased. We evaluate against Wang-corrected benchmarks.
- BIN decomposition. Bias, information, and noise are separately measurable (Satopaa 2021). Chrono Score emphasizes discrimination over calibration — Atanasov shows elite forecasters’ advantage is telling events apart, not probability precision.
- Domain-partitioned. Skill is not transitive across domains (Bossaerts 2022: 75% of traders are price-sensitive in fewer markets than the mean). Scores are issued per domain (politics, crypto, macro, sports, etc.).
- Minimum threshold. 20 resolved markets before classification (Yang 2026 methodology). Below that, no score is issued.
- Time-weighted. Early and mid-lifecycle trades weighted more than near-resolution trades (pricing wedge decays with lifetime — Yang 2026).
- Reputation-only weighting architecture. Agustin 2026 proves multiplicative (w = r·s) is too weak to overcome 40× stake differentials. We use reputation-only (or log-scaled) weighting in any internal aggregation where reputation is meant to have authority.
What it is not
Section titled “What it is not”- Not a leaderboard. Ranking is a side effect, not the product. The product is a portable credential.
- Not a wealth score. Capital size is anti-correlated with edge (Deleep). Large position size does not improve Chrono Score.
- Not a single number. Domain partitions mean a forecaster may have a 94 in macro and a 51 in sports. We publish all partitions, not a single aggregate.
- Not transferable or salable. Soulbound by design.
Execution Score (companion, internal)
Section titled “Execution Score (companion, internal)”A second score, Execution Score, measures realized PnL net of timing / spread / fee drag. Motivation: Vedova 2026 (N=222M trades) shows bots earn +0.56% ROI at 49.91% accuracy while 51.27%-accuracy retail lose $79M. Execution and accuracy are orthogonal capabilities.
Execution Score is consumed internally by Fast-Forward (position sizing) and is not publicly displayed in v0. Publishing it creates a copycat risk for genuine alpha strategies. Revisit after Phase 1 data.
Build status
Section titled “Build status”- Spec: complete (this page +
CONCEPTUAL_MODEL.md §4a) - Data sources: Polymarket subgraph, Kalshi API, Azuro subgraph — all read-only, public
- Smart-contract surface: EAS schema registration + attestation writer. Lightweight. No custody.
- Frontend: /score/[wallet] + search + domain filter
- Timeline: 4–8 weeks from dedicated start
- Team: Dan + contract frontend dev
A soulbound (non-transferable) on-chain record of your forecasting skill. It accumulates across every prediction you make — and unlocks better terms across all Chronomancy products.
- → Fast-Forward: +5% exit premium
- → Rewind: Silver tier (70% recovery)
- → Fast-Forward: +10% exit premium
- → Rewind: Gold tier (100% recovery)
- → Fast-Forward: +18% exit premium
- → Rewind: Gold tier + priority access
Citations
Section titled “Citations”Full citations in the literature review. Summary pages: skill is real, reputation as infrastructure, two-score architecture.